NBA Free Agency Preview: Justin Holiday
The Lakers could very well be in the market for a Swiss Army Knife type of player. Can Justin Holiday fit that bill?
Welcome to issue #19 of Throwdowns.
On Friday, Shams Charania of The Athletic reported the NBA’s league office was “targeting” December 22nd as the potential start date for the upcoming season. As of this issue, that’s less than two months away.
Which is, optimistic and swift to say the least.
If, or when this becomes official, it sets up what will be a 30-50 day frenzy that must include any modifications or termination of the current CBA, new salary cap figures, the draft, free-agency and the opening of training camps. *Insert J.R. Smith/Cody Bellinger perplexed face.
Although a healthy portion of the current champions are still hungover and/or are still celebrating their recent accomplishment, it seems looking forward to next year is already here.
So, beginning today, I will begin my offseason guide for the Lakers which will mainly feature breakdowns of potential free-agent targets (I will just work off the premise they have their full Mid-Level Exception available, but this could change), a handy draft primer (again, assuming they keep their pick) and the much needed aid of many talented people.
With all of that now out of the way, on to this one, which with the help of Caitlin Cooper and Tony East, takes us to Indiana for a Holiday.
Michael Hickey - Getty Images | Throwdowns Illustration
Caitlin, this is admittedly a bit of a murky question given how we analyze the modern NBA, but what role(s)/responsibilities did Justin Holiday have with the Pacers this year? And how well did he do in them? Would you have utilized him any differently?
What role didn’t he have? As a non-starter, he played a whopping 46 percent of the team’s total clutch minutes, stepping in at times for Jeremy Lamb at the wing as well as one or the other of Domantas Sabonis or (more typically) Myles Turner in downsized units against certain match-ups.
In many ways, the elder of Indiana’s two Holiday brothers was the actualized version of what C.J. Miles tried to be for the Pacers during the 2015-16 season when he volunteered himself as tribute in place of Paul George at stretch-four.
As a power fauxward (*Alex note: I am stealing this), Justin battled to make post touches tough, and his durability — especially in terms of maintaining his reliability as a shooter in spite of playing up a position — is commendable, but there were certainly moments where it was noticeable that he was giving up heft against bigger forwards.
Here, for example, the problem isn’t so much the size mismatch, but rather what the Pacers sacrificed on the glass as a result of rotations out of double-teams.
He also occasionally found himself buried under the rim against Kelly Olynyk in the playoffs, when he arguably would’ve been better served, as was the case over the back-end of the series, tracking shooters out on the perimeter.
Moving forward, Justin probably ideally plays more of his minutes as a prototypical 3-and-D wing rather than as a makeshift four, which, of course, shouldn’t be too much of a concern for a team like the Lakers, who can still play big and stay sufficiently mobile even they’re *technically* playing “small(er).”
What about on offense, where Holiday posted his lowest usage rate, best eFG% and highest 3-point% frequency of his career. What do you think led to this, and how much of it is repeatable going forward? Specifically the shot?
Ok, now in what will sound like a complete contradiction to my last answer: There were clearly some perks to playing him at the four in small-ball lineups off the bench.
Overall, the Pacers didn’t call a lot of plays specifically for Justin; but when they did, it was typically for him to run his man through mazes of picks, particularly out of this J.J. Redick-esque give-a-screen, get-a-screen variation of floppy, wherein he would fly off the single side with Doug McDermott simultaneously drawing gravity on the opposite side of the floor (*Alex again: this play design is awesome).
Granted, Frank Vogel may not have the horses to make that particular action go without another lethal off-ball mover, but Indiana would also routinely run this corner action for him to zig-zag above the break and provide spacing around Sabonis that would no doubt be reassuring to have in pocket for when teams double either of LeBron or Anthony Davis.
Plus, just to emphasize: Per Synergy, he shot 41 percent on transition threes, 40 percent on spot-up threes, and 35 percent on threes coming off of screens all while, at times, DEFENDING UP A POSITION.
On the whole, there was certainly a lyrical quality to be gained from playing Justin at the four alongside his younger brother, T.J. McConnell, Doug McDermott, and Sabonis; however, if he’s in a situation next season where he’s tasked mostly with guarding twos and threes, there’s a chance his 31-year-old legs — and, by extension, his shot — might prove even more equipped to hold up over the course of a deep playoff run, at least in terms of running to his strengths in the open floor off of misses and makes.
From the Lakers’ side, a lot of their success this year was credited to their defense and versatility. How would you gauge Holiday in this regard, possibly point out where he’s most effective.
I already touched on his main weakness up above, so let’s skip ahead and take a closer look at three clips that I think best summarize his strengths.
This is going to sound weird, but Justin has really great flexibility in his hips. Not only does that make him effective at tagging as a help-side defender but it also allows him to ably jump back and forth between the ball and his man.
In that respect, there are certainly cases where his off-ball defense can be interpreted as the stop that precedes the stop. Think of it this way: Jeremy Lamb gets credited for the steal here, but the reason he’s able to intercept the pass is because Julius Randle gets thrown off balance by Justin doing the hokey-pokey and blanketing Kevin Knox.
Plus, he has a knack for staying attached even when he doesn’t stay attached. Check-out this defensive possession against Orlando.
With a sizable lead on the chase, notice how Terrance Ross stays vigilant of Justin’s path, cleverly cutting to the corner instead of the wing. And yet, look who is still there to contest the microwave scorer’s shot (*Alex once more: Holy shit!).
He also comes in handy as a like-sized defender in switching lineups. The Pacers don’t make a habit of trading defensive responsibilities, but when Ben Simmons was repeatedly screening Aaron into mismatches during crunch-time, Justin subbed in for his little brother and quickly came to the rescue.
With more size on the floor, the Pacers were able to avoid giving up unforced switches and when Brogdon had to release from Simmons to help on the drive, look at who poked the ball free.
Fast, long, and mobile with a high basketball IQ and a game that most often makes an impact in the shadows, Justin plays his role — no matter what it may be — and he plays it well.
Alright Tony, you recently wrote a great piece on Justin and something that really stood out to me was how well liked he was by many within the Pacers’ organization. Can you divulge a bit further what it was like covering/watching him this year?
Justin joined the team and immediately bonded with nearly all of his teammates.
He was the eldest Pacer this past season at 30 years old (turned 31 in April), and he paired his age with a wide range of basketball experience (Overseas, G League stint and as a member of a Championship team). This allowed him to both relate to his teammates while also being a guiding voice.
Watching and covering him both led to a similar calming emotion. On the court, he was very rarely in the game for a chaotic moment of play or during a one-sided run for the Pacers opponent.
In the locker room, he was always good for a calculated and thoughtful quote about the team or a player. And, due to his ability to be a glue guy both on and off the floor, the quotes about Holiday himself were equally refreshing.
(*Alex here, last time I promise. I think this specifically would translate well within a Lakers’ roster that was so close this year. We can probably assume not everyone will be back for the sequel, so adding similar “types” of personalities should be a box that needs to be checked).
You also mentioned in your piece some of the potential factors that could play into the calculus when it comes to his upcoming free-agency. At this stage of his career, what do you think will be important to him when it comes to deciding where to call home, and what do you think his eventual market could look like?
It all comes down to what he values. Duh. But it’s even more true for Holiday given the larger external factors involved in his free agency.
Holiday is 31, this is likely his last chance to get big money, and over multiple years. On top of that, he and his wife just had their second child. Money will obviously be important to him as he grows his family and tries to set them up financially for years to come.
At the same time, since this could potentially be his last lengthy contract, he could weigh heavily the location of the team that signs him. That may be a permanent home for his family even after he retires from basketball.
And finally, with two brothers in the NBA, he could choose to pursue more family moments with Jrue and Aaron. Truly, he has a lot to consider.
His market should be fairly robust since he can shoot and defend. Any team at any stage of building could use him, so competition for his services can and should be expected.
A deal that is ~3 years in length and ~$7.5 million per year makes sense, with variation on the years and dollars if Holiday gets to either play with his brothers or gets a market he desires.
But given what is shaking out to be a totally unpredictable free agency period, I wouldn't be surprised with any type of deal he signs.
A special thanks once again to Caitlin and Tony for their help. Please support them both as they do tremendous work covering the Pacers and basketball.