NBA Free Agency Preview: D. J. Augustin
With multiple looming free agents in their own backcourt, the Lakers might look to fill a void or even upgrade at point guard -- Enter D.J. Augustin?
Welcome to issue #20 of Throwdowns.
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With all that said, on to this one, which is the next installment of my offseason guide for the Lakers and with the help of Beyond the RK, takes us back to Orlando.
D.J. Augustin is set to become a free-agent this offseason after finishing up his 4-year deal with the Magic. What are your general thoughts/takeaways with his tenure with Orlando on and off the court?
D.J. Augustin walked into Orlando as an undersized bucket-getter with a little bit of tunnel vision. If his time with the team is in fact done, he’ll leave matured, and as a team-first veteran.
For the fanbase, he’ll forever be remembered as an Orlando Magic playoff legend. The Lakers have the Bubble Championship — with 17 rings to celebrate. Orlando has playoff moments like “The D.J. Augustin Shot” in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference playoffs against Kawhi Leonard’s Raptors.
For the team, Augustin has been a net-positive to their chemistry, with an article on Orlando’s team site even touting him as The Most Universally Respected Player in Magic’s Locker Room.
His contributions during his tenure have also translated into the city as he is a stalwart in community service projects, most recently donating to an organization that delivers food to medical workers.
On the hardwood, he proved he could handle being a starter as recently as the 2018-19 season, when he had one of the most efficient seasons of his career. D.J. dropped a 47-42-87 shooting line with 5.3/1.6 Assist-to-Turnover rate. Both impressive compared to average starter outputs.
He ran the most pick-and-rolls on the team (0.96 points per possession, 5.2 possessions per), usually with Nikola Vucevic rolling to the rim in his lone All-Star season, while also scoring a robust 1.37 points per possession in spot up situations.
Overall, Augustin shot 8.4 times per game that season on a career high FG% (47%) and 3.8 3PA per game on the second highest 3PT% (42.1%) of his career. Zooming in a bit more, D.J. shot 44.5% on his catch and shoot chances and 38.9% on pull-ups, proving an all-around efficiency in a career year. Both shooting and passing wise.
He also showed a willingness to accept a backup role this season when the team was ready to ease their newly acquired point guard, Markelle Fultz, into the starting role.
I’m glad you brought up Augustin’s efficiency from that season (which was DAMN good like you outlined!) as he saw some pretty notable dips compared to his previous outputs this year. Are there any specific reasons why this happened?
Augustin’s most noticeable drop-offs in 2019-20 were unfortunately in the same areas he set career highs in the season prior: FG% (47% to 40%) and 3P% (42% to 35%). His number of FGA/3PA attempts and assist to turnover rate stayed relatively similar, while his free-throws made and FT% slightly increased in this new bench role.
His overall true shooting% also fell from a career-high 61.6% in 2018-19 down to a career average 55.4% a year later. A rough fall back to earth given how high he previously reached.
Maybe some of these drop-offs were about his change of role more than him losing a step. Playing alongside Orlando’s talent in the starting unit is a whole different ball game than coming off the bench with the likes of Khem Birch, Wes Iwundu, Michael-Carter Williams and Mo Bamba.
A group of predominantly lengthy wings and bigs who are 1) non-shooters or 2) developing ones. We should also acknowledge his knee injury. The lingering effects of which at this point in his career is another factor to projecting future production, as an undersized player who needs to score to bring value can’t afford to lose a step.
Chart via: Jacob Goldstein | Winsadded.com
Other than Orlando’s “Human Torch”, Terrence Ross, Augustin was left to create for himself off the bench in a new backup role, reverting closer to his career averages.
If a team can provide him modern spacing, an efficient pick-and-roll partner and an appropriate role, there’s value as a regular season rotation player. Offensively he can hang in most games, but he’s an obvious defensive hole on the biggest stages, especially if he’s caught switching.
Contenders hopefully make up for that with enough defense elsewhere in the lineup, or realize that his value is moreso as an 82-game regular season player and a relatively consistent reserve scoring option who can get hot any night, rather than a 16-game two-way playoff rotation player.
Scott Taetsch - Getty Images | Throwdowns Illustration
Speaking of contenders potentially in the market for his services, how would you foresee Augustin fitting in within the Lakers’ ecosystem? The team needs a guard who can create their own offense as well as for their teammates when LeBron is off the floor. And what about his questionable defense like you mentioned, especially in the playoffs?
For the Lakers specifically, if Anthony Davis, LeBron James and the rest of L.A.’s starting unit offer enough defense to cover him up, then Augustin could likely step in right away as either a starter or serve as an extra bailout scoring option.
He may be more focused on scoring than passing at times, but is still a player who usually makes the right read. Obviously undersized at 5’11,” but he can create chances out of nothing, and is of those guys who thrives going off-script after the play breaks down. A player who in theory, can mesh with LeBron’s methodical tendencies.
As a reserve, the notion of replacing Rajon Rondo for Augustin as the primary second unit playmaker with Davis on the court and while LeBron gets a rest, could also be a sound choice and smooth transition given his experience as a capable P&R ball-handler both as a passer and scorer.
In terms of how he would fare in a playoff series — specifically on defense — a team like the Lakers will simply have to know in advance that he will get picked on.
But, if he has enough support around him, which Los Angeles could potentially provide, and/or a club is just sorely in need of an experienced scorer who can handle, get into the paint and shoot from deep, they would still likely enjoy his bucket-getting services on the aggregate.
Obviously this is difficult given what will be a murky offseason, but what do you think Augustin’s market will be? What factors do you think will play a role in his decision process?
With the salary cap reportedly remaining roughly flat at $109M, along with next season’s start date still up in the air, there are plenty of factors weighing into free agent decisions.
Augustin’s been making a flat $7.25M for the past four seasons, while showing a willingness to accept any role the team throws at him. Salary value can sometimes be in the eyes of the beholder as role, expectations and fit all affect how value is perceived.
Some teams are asset-strapped and only need to make small adjustments, so overpaying for one additional scoring option and a bit of regular season consistency could be more valuable to them than say a rebuilding team.
Has Augustin earned a full mid-level exception (~$19M/2-years)? Probably. Maybe?
A team who wants a veteran presence at point guard could offer him that in what is essentially a thin free agent class when it come to point guards. He’s particularly one of those guys who could be a steal for someone on say half of the mid-level, or end up looking like an overpay on the full MLE when it’s all said and done.
Providing enough impact for his salary to be valuable really comes down to the expected role a team asks him to play, along with how many other avenues that team has towards adding talent.
If you’re paying him expecting a reliable two-way playoff rotation piece who doesn’t hurt you defensively, then it does not matter what the cost is as he won’t live up to the contract. If you’re paying for a flyer on an extra scoring option whose shown to be efficient in the ideal role however, you’re bound to find value.
One would think after eight teams in twelve seasons, Augustin might prefer to join a contender if given the option. There’s also the chance that he’s become so comfortable in Orlando that he accepts the sort-of team-friendly deal the front office has become known for working out.
Augustin has shown he deserves another contract in this league, and is capable of contributing in an offensive-minded role until the wheels fall off. Magic fans will never forget where they were when he drilled his legendary shot, and maybe, he can provide a similar moment on his next team.
A special thanks once again to Beyond The RK for his help. You can follow his Magic coverage, fancy charts and more on twitter and on his personal medium account.