NBA Draft Preview: An Examination of the Lakers' First Round Options
A conversation and breakdown of what routes Los Angeles may take on draft night, and who they may/should target.
Welcome to issue #21 of Throwdowns.
As of this newsletter, the NBA Draft is somehow only 16 days away. Gasp. So to get us (myself included) up to speed, I chatted with three of the most informative draftniks I know — Ben Rosales, Mike Garcia and Zach Milner.
Without further ado, onto our conversation on short roll passing, shot diversity and the tantalizing meme potential of Desmond Bane.
Alex: This offseason is going to be batshit insane. The draft seems like the only NBA event with any certainty at this point. So, before we get into the minutia of prospects, wingspans, etc, how confident are we that the Lakers even keep their pick this year?
Ben: I am very much in the camp that the Lakers aren’t keeping their pick this year.
The team is in win now mode — they have LeBron James and Anthony Davis fresh off a title run in a year in which there are no clear favorites, and there is a great deal of opportunity to improve in a summer in which cap space is limited to a number of rebuilding teams (notwithstanding that the cap is projected to decrease or be flat at best) and there are trade opportunities to be had by dangling the pick as a sweetener.
The Lakers’ scouting department has certainly proved their mettle in terms of picking contributors in the range they currently occupy themselves in (i.e., Josh Hart, Kyle Kuzma, Larry Nance, etc).
But, I would expect the Lakers to be connected with a number of interesting names in conjunction with the pick and say Kyle Kuzma as a sweetener that would make even those late round contributors appear to be mildly positive appellations in comparison.
Zach: Yeah, I think it’s more likely than not that the pick is traded, but I am probably not as confident as Ben. The Lakers have clear ways they can improve and attaching the pick with Kuzma is one way they can put a package together with their limited assets.
I’m less confident because I’m not 100% sure that the right offer will come around for the Lakers to jump on, and their scouting department has a good track record while Kuzma himself, still brings some value to the team.
There’s no need to sell low if the right offer doesn’t come around, but they should definitely gauge the market. I think it also should be noted that the Lakers aren’t going to have much cap space going forward, so hitting in the draft could be extremely valuable going forward.
Mike: I think Zach and Ben make great points. But I also think that it’s really dependent on where the actual cap numbers are and where that luxury tax line is.
If the Lakers are automatically put in a position where the cap and luxury tax line is so low that the team is already in luxury tax territory, then I think the team may just forego any possibility of emptying the overall team cap for free agency in 2021 and possibly 2022.
If that’s the case, I think it makes sense to just keep the pick and at the very least, lock down a mulit-year, cost-controlled young piece.
Alex: If we were to just work off the assumption that the Lakers do keep their pick, which is slated to be late in the first round (#28) what do you think the team’s draft philosophy should be this year? Should it deviate from the tanking days?
Mike: Unfortunately I still think this is tied to a cap situation. If the Lakers plan to keep the pick, then I think it’s important that the Lakers put an emphasis on a player able to contribute at least one NBA level skill.
It may be tough to fill out the roster, so I do expect a young player to get more playing time than Talen Horton-Tucker got for example last season. Fortunately for the team, the back-half of the first round projects to have a handful of experienced guys that not only fit what the Lakers need, but also provide good skillsets from the jump.
Ben: The luxury of a contending team is that it makes all approaches justifiable. A top- shelf team doesn’t usually expect a rookie to contribute immediately, so it gives you the runway to take a prospect who needs a bit of conditioning and reps before getting into the swing of things. As well as naturally taking a look at a relatively low ceiling, high floor player who is better-equipped to contribute in the short term.
Talen Horton-Tucker was a strong play in that potential column, for instance, whereas past picks like Josh Hart and Larry Nance could walk into the Lakers’ present circumstances and likely be immediate rotation players.
That being said, the pendulum swings in favor of a more NBA-ready player this time around since we don’t actually know whether the G League will be operative this year and if a prospect will actually be able to enjoy the sort of reps that THT, Devontae Cacok and Kostas Antetokounmpo did this past season.
I ultimately will defer to the tried-and-true best player available (BPA) approach, but if I had to handicap the race, I’d say that an upperclassman ready to take immediate rotation time if called upon would be a preference of the front office.
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Alex: Ben, you bring up a good point regarding how the timetable for development (potential suspended G-League operations, Summer League, quick training camp, etc) might be drastically different this year. Does this weigh into the calculus at all for you when it comes to picking? Are older/more experienced prospects thus a market inefficiency?
Ben: It does to an extent, but it’s important to remember that the time horizon for a first round pick is decently long with at least five years of team control, so the development path for a player will likely not be overly constrained by the limitations of this one season.
On the flip side, the Lakers have an opportunity to improve a bonafide title window now, and keeping that window open in the short term has inherent value beyond vaguely gesturing toward improving a Lakers future that might not include a LeBron James going into his late 30s.
The overall push should still be toward a more experienced player who is ready to hit a rotation, take his lumps in a season in which he’ll be asked to play a good deal immediately (since the Lakers likely will load manage their older players) and develop enough that he’ll have utility when the playoffs role around.
Alex: I think you hit on the magic word earlier Mike, skillset. What skills do you guys think the Lakers would benefit most from?
Mike: While the Lakers won a championship through building a strong defensive team around two franchise players in LeBron James and Anthony Davis, we also saw the benefits of what 5-out spacing looked like in smaller lineups with Markieff Morris, or what additional transition playmaking ability from Playoff Rondo added to the calculus.
One of the things the Lakers really lacked in the aggregate was another initiator. The Lakers were so reliant on LeBron to run the offense, and none of the Lakers players had a ton of quickness or shake to dynamically manipulate defenses. So finding an initiator with the ability to shift defenses off the dribble would go far for this team.
That being said, my preference is still “best player available.” Being able to find a rotation player — regardless of skillset — adds depth to the team. It would be a huge boon for the Lakers if it happened to be an initiator, but a 3-and-D type or a versatile big would go a long way.
Zach: Yeah I strongly agree with Mike. All season, I said that the Lakers largest two flaws were: 1) their lack of wing depth, and 2) another initiator.
Like Mike said, the Lakers do not specifically have a role player who could take someone off the dribble. Obviously, it’s tough to rely on a rookie to do this on a contending team, but it’s definitely something that I think we should be looking at in the draft. Personally, I’m not a fan of this draft as a whole, but I will say that I think one strength of this class is the guard depth.
Ben: Mike and Zach have hit on the Lakers’ primary deficiencies, but I think a discrete role that’s easiest for a rookie to walk into would be a floor-spacing big that fits next to AD and spares him the necessity of matching up with opposing fives, even in playoff contexts (since you want to let a defensive dervish roam around and erase possessions).
That archetype evokes Markieff Morris, albeit a bit more sound defensively, as the Lakers likely will (or should at any rate) be unwilling to match offers to him above the minimum. A rookie who could offer max effort for around 15 minutes a game could pay a great deal of dividends here and share the floor with Davis when the other team is going with more conventional lineups.
All that said, completely agree that an initiator is paramount and there are a panoply of options to pick from. You just run a gamut of greater variance in exposing a rookie to high level playoff defenses that will relentlessly and ruthlessly expose his deficiencies, even if a number of possible initiators are supposedly experienced or sure-handed relative to their peers as prospects.
Alex: So now that we have covered the types of skills, general prospect archetypes, let’s talk names. I represent a majority of the fanbase who did not follow the NCAA/overseas ball very closely. Who are some late first round names fans should familiarize themselves with that you think either check certain boxes, or fit the MO of the scouting department?
Zach: It’s always tough to predict who will be available, especially this year when the pre-draft process is so different. But, while this class isn’t the most intriguing, I think there will be a decent amount of interesting players available for the Lakers.
If Grant Riller is on the board, he’d be my clear top prospect for the Lakers. A couple of other players that I think fans should familiarize themselves with are Isaiah Joe, Malachi Flynn, and Desmond Bane.
Ben: All of the names Zach mentioned above are 100% options to keep an eye on (I have a particular affinity for Flynn, who projects as a surprisingly strong two-way player who can operate on and off ball), but since a lot of the names I would bring up were mentioned, I’ll point toward Xavier Tillman, who strikes me as a player this Lakers front office will enjoy.
Tillman is a super high-IQ five with completely dominant defensive metrics (which are easily confirmed by an even casual glimpse of his play; he regularly embarasses players with his defensive craft). He brings interior toughness with sound footwork and not-quite-switch-y-defense-but-close, all of which reads as an excellent fit next to Davis, who will roam on the perimeter and terrorize opposing offenses.
The push skill for Tillman is whether he will be able to display his nascent perimeter shooting ability in the pros (bleh 3P% but respectable FT% for a big in college), all of which would propel him into an instant rotation big if he can stretch the floor and drag out opposing fives for Davis to roll down the lane and dunk all over teams.
Even without the shot, Tillman still has utility, chiefly with his short roll passing ability, not a skill to look down upon as Bam Adebayo has shown, but his intrigue will decrease significantly.
via: Jackson Frank
Mike: Zach and Ben already brought up my favorites that may hover around the Laker pick but I’ll mention a player that’s a little outside of the box — Killian Tillie.
Unfortunately, Tillie has had a couple of injury riddled seasons and missed games, but I expect him to shoot, be a switchable defender along the perimeter and show great verticality at the rim defensively.
And maybe most importantly, have a skillset that is complementary to both LeBron and Anthony Davis.
Zach: Mike, I’m also a huge fan of Tillie’s game. The question everyone has with him like you alluded to is his health. I’m confident in saying he’s a first round talent, but the health is concerning. Do you think he’s worth a first round pick even with the risks attached?
Mike: I do share those same concerns about his health, and unfortunately we’re not privy to his medical records. However, if the Lakers feel like they can handle the situation well, maybe by steadily increasing his playing time as the season goes on, he’d be the possible best player available while being a great fit between the franchise cornerstones.
Personally, I’m not as concerned about his regular season playing time as I think his main value would be how incredibly valuable his skillset would be in a playoff setting. The Lakers will need him for the final 16+ games moreso than the regular season.
Ben: If Tillie is healthy, he’d be a home run pick. Woo boy, he and AD are scary as hell.
Alex: We already a couple names linked to the Lakers in TCU guard Desmond Bane, and Stanford guard Tyrell Terry. Zach, you mentioned Bane earlier as a name fans should keep an eye on, general thoughts on both those players? Goes without saying, Bane in particular has massive meme potential. So that’s a plus for Lakers’ twitter.
Zach: I’m a big fan of Desmond Bane’s game and it would be an incredible pick for the Lakers. Personally, I don’t think he’d fall to the Lakers’ pick as of now, but before Bane started getting a lot more draft hype, I actually wrote about him over at The Stepien as one of the potential draft values in the 2nd round.
via: Jackson Frank
Bane would be such a great fit next to LeBron and AD. He’s probably the best shooter in this class with his deep range, ability to shoot off-movement and can also shoot off-the-dribble.
In addition to his shooting, Bane has significantly improved as a passer over the last couple years and he’s a high IQ player on both sides of the floor. He’s also a particularly good mover without the ball, which can improve the team’s offense on it’s own.
Mike: If Bane were to fall to the Lakers I personally would be very happy. The Lakers get a guy that is decisive in the half court, can see the full width of the floor, but operates more off-ball with screen utilization as a motion shooter.
This is exactly the type of role player that can add a dimension to the half-court while not requiring a lot of usage, and blending well with what Davis and James do on the floor together. Also, he’s a great interviewer.
Zach: While there are a few other prospects that I’d prefer the Lakers to take, Tyrell Terry makes a good amount of sense. And the team is an ideal spot for him specifically because he works best next to a big initiator, and LeBron obviously is just that.
Terry is a fantastic off-ball player and shooter, understands spacing (namely in transition) and has shown some skills on-ball. The biggest question with Terry though is his frame/strength especially at the next level.
His strength (or lack thereof) will be a concern on both ends as it limits his ability to get to the rim even if he’s a good finisher, and it also makes him exploitable on defense. His off-ball defense is also inconsistent. There are times where he has shown solid instincts on that end, but he also has some very questionable possessions where he gets lost. He’d be a fine pick, but I probably would still lean other names.
Alex: Alright, now the fun part: Prediction time! Who will rock a Lakers’ cap at the end of draft night? Give me the most realistic name, a wildcard and who you wish the pick is. And then we can look back at this and laugh, or cry.
Zach: My realistic guesses are Malachi Flynn or Tyrell Terry. I’m not entirely sure they will go after a small guard after everything we’ve seen lately, but this type of pick wouldn’t surprise me.
As for who I want the Lakers to pick, there are a few players I mentioned above, but Grant Riller will be my #1 (unless someone crazy drops) with Desmond Bane and Isaiah Joe (hey we talked about him in the past!). My wildcard pick would be Cassius Winston.
Mike: My realistic pick is Tre Jones. He’s a steady, two-way playmaker that has spent time alongside a more ball-dominant wing at Duke in R.J. Barrett, and was still able to be effective. He makes simple plays consistently and defends his position very well.
Out of personal preference, I’d love the pick to be Malachi Flynn. He’s also a two-way point guard, has shown more versatility out of pick and roll situations and has flashed the ability to shoot off motion.
I’d also be really interested in what Phil Handy could do with Isaiah Joe in particular, since he not only flashed the shooting ability, but also playmaking chops during his freshman year and projects to have defensive ability from the wing.
I agree with Zach about the wildcard pick in Cassius Winston. NBA strength goes far, and I think it’s an indicator of being able to contribute as a rookie. Winston has that, and brings pull-up 3-point shooting.
He may not be as shifty as someone like Riller, but having an initiator that can set up the offense and offer shot diversity would help ease the offensive pressure on LeBron.
Zach: One of my favorite things about Winston is that he’s a special shotmaker. It’s always tough to bank on shotmaking translating to the next level, but he demonstrated the ability to make shots at the highest of difficulties.
As the ball-handler in the pick and roll, he can destroy drop coverages when his defender goes over the screen because he’s able to knock down shots leaning forward and a contest from behind doesn’t faze him.
via: Jackson Frank
Alex: You all brought up quite a bit of names which is handy given the Lakers could also utilize the un-drafted market/or purchase a 2nd round pick to refill their asset cupboard. Who are some players on your radar that can fit this criteria?
Zach: While I’m not sure these players will be drafted, I think the Lakers should keep an eye on Ty-Shon Alexander and Nate Hinton. Both are 3-and-D players that could help the Lakers on both sides of the floor, and fit what they looked for to surround LeBron and AD this past year.
Honestly, I think Alexander has a very similar playstyle to KCP and if KCP is back, that’d be the perfect veteran to learn from. If the Lakers can buy a 2nd round pick, I would 100% look at those two in addition to Jalen Harris and Sam Merrill.
These next few players are more likely than not going to go undrafted, but I’d also be interested in Trent Forrest, Nate Darling and Caleb Homesley as potential two-way players.
Mike: I love Hinton’s motor on the floor. His kind of play is infectious. I also think that Immanuel Quickley is worth a look in the 2nd round as well. He too, worked out with the Lakers already. It’s worth noting that not only did he shoot 42.8% behind the arc on solid volume (about 6 attempts per-40), but also had a free throw rate of 43.2% his freshman year, and improved on it to 47.1% as a sophomore.
That perimeter shooting ability and free throw rate is tough to ignore and also addresses a key Laker need, not just in terms of shooting, but someone outside of LeBron and Davis to put pressure on the defense and draw fouls. He’s a legit point of attack defender with good size at 6’3” (w/o shoes) and roughly a 6’8” wingspan.
Last year he played off ball on a guard-heavy Kentucky team, and if anything that should make his transition easier onto the current Laker team.
I’ve also got my fingers crossed that Nate Darling gets a shot with the team and ends up at least being a Vegas Pro League Matt Thomas all over again.
A special thanks once again to Ben, Mike and Zach for all their help. You can catch more of their thoughts, analysis and work on Twitter. All clips courtesy of Zach unless otherwise noted.