Breaking Down the Lakers' In-House Options to Replace Avery Bradley
Considering aspects such as the data and game plan, an examination of who or whom the Lakers should turn to in Avery Bradley's absence.
Welcome to issue #11 of Throwdowns.
No lofty introductions this week outside of once again thanking all those who read/shared issue #10. The positive feedback was awesome.
With that said, let’s move on to this one. It’s about the thorny process of physically and spiritually replacing an important cog of a collective unit.
When the Lakers arrive to Orlando, and the Bubble, they will do so without their starting guard, Avery Bradley.
Last week, Bradley opted out of the remainder of the season and corresponding playoffs, citing his family’s health and well-being as the central reason. For context, it was also reported by ESPN that Bradley’s 6-year-old son Liam, who has a history of respiratory illnesses, would have unlikely been medically cleared to enter the Orlando bubble with his family.
Before going any further, it bears noting and repeating that Bradley’s decision is not one that should be criticized, critiqued or even one that requires any explanation.
Given both the current health and social climate we live in, any individual’s cautiousness should be warranted and respected. Especially when it relates to one’s family.
With that said, while not the caliber of player of LeBron James or Anthony Davis, Bradley’s absence on the Lakers is nothing to overlook.
Initially a polarizing signing given his injury history and sketchy statistical profile, Bradley did not outwardly shake his previous reputation with the Lakers this year.
But what he did prove to be was a key component to an engaged, and blue-collar defense (third best defRTG in the league). And his role on the team often was cited as the reason why from the coaching staff and players alike.
Photo by: Katelyn Mulcahy - Getty Images | Throwdowns Illustration
Despite having some rough individual defensive data, the Lakers were still a better defensive team with Bradley on the floor vs. off. Potentially due to how much he set an intense tone nearly from day one.
While his aggressiveness on-ball and at the point of attack often got him in foul trouble or more susceptible to off-the-ball mishaps, his teammates seemed to feed off of his hard-nosed play. A spiritual, and emotional asset that is impossible to quantify.
When it comes to the offensive side of the floor, it is safe to say Bradley didn’t exactly set the world on fire.
Yes, his 36.4% shooting from beyond the arc was passable and welcomed. Yet when considering both shot quality and the fact that among the 195 players with at least 100 spot-up possessions this year, Bradley ranked 185th, the actual FG% could be a bit misleading.
It is worth mentioning however that before the stoppage of play, Bradley was nothing short of a flamethrower from deep. Whether that would have continued is of course unknown at this point.
Given the current available options on the free-agent market, the Lakers will likely have to look inward for an immediate replacement for Bradley on the roster.
In an attempt to better navigate the potential candidates, I felt it was best to look at who should fill Bradley’s role/void from two angles: what the numbers say and what stylistically may be most cohesive.
What The Data Says
In terms of which player should/deserves to be plopped into Bradley’s spot, the numbers substantially point to one person — Alex Caruso.
For transparency sake, this is unabashedly a pro-Caruso newsletter. With that said, the case for more Caruso, and specifically more Caruso playing next to James, is deafening.
Let’s take a look at some of the Bald Mamba’s on/off numbers this year per Cleaning the Glass:
The Lakers with Caruso on the floor (1985 possessions): +10.2
The Lakers with Caruso & James on the floor (983 possessions): +20.8 *Also, in the 100th percentile of the league in point differential among two-man combinations.
The Lakers with Caruso in the starting lineup next to Danny Green, JaVale McGee, Davis and James (19 possessions): +57.9
For brevity sake, this essentially means when Caruso has been on the floor — especially next to starting caliber talent — the lineup performs exceptionally well.
How much this is a product of Caruso himself is difficult to gauge. But one overwhelming trend that appears in the lineup data with him on the floor is the Lakers’ defense becomes even more stifling (103.8 defRTG w/ Caruso on | 107.2 defRTG w/ Caruso off).
This likely will be the area the team largely will attempt to address with Bradley out.
For as good as Caruso’s defense and impact have been this year, there should still be a level of concern if it would realistically translate against starting caliber players as we have yet to see a significant sample of this.
This also applies to his offense, in particular whether his shooting (34.6% combined shooting on his open/wide-open 3-point attempts) would be up to snuff during postseason play.
There is also the question of what the butterfly effect of sliding Caruso in the starting lineup would be within the team’s bench groups. Whom outside of Rajon Rondo lacked consistent shot creation chops.
That is, unless the Lakers fully embrace Dion Waiters time (which I am sorta, kinda excited/intrigued/horrified by).
What The Game Plan Says
When attempting to determine which player is potentially best equipped to fill Bradley’s role to the closest degree, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope may be the man for the job.
Although nominally slotted at the one-spot, and by virtue of being the shortest member of the starting lineup occasionally asked to dribble the ball up the floor, Bradley’s role within the Lakers’ offense largely mirrored that of a 3 & D wing.
As the beneficiary of James’ and Davis’ gravity, Bradley posted his second-lowest usage rate and his highest assisted rate (how often a player is assisted on all their made shots, 80%) of his career.
Used almost strictly as a catch and shoot target for James to pinpoint when driving, Bradley’s skillset does not differ that much from Caldwell-Pope, who in theory could potentially optimize the starting group’s spacing better than Bradley did.
Like Bradley, Caldwell-Pope’s offense derived heavily from other’s playmaking as he hovered around the perimeter with his hands in the ready position. But unlike his teammate, Caldwell-Pope’s shot was far more consistent.
If we were to simply give Bradley’s shots to Caldwell-Pope in this system, the Lakers would likely see very little drop-off and in most cases, probably see an increase in both efficiency and individual gravity.
This was seen in the on/off data during the games in which Bradley missed earlier in the year due to injury.
When Caldwell-Pope was inserted into the starting lineup, the Lakers posted an offRTG of 115.4 (546 possessions registered) compared to their season average of 112.6 with Bradley on the floor.
Besides simply shooting and making open shots when asked upon, Caldwell-Pope also has shown ability (to varying degrees) in executing the team’s pet plays usually run for Bradley.
The Lakers often used the 29-year-old in dribble handoffs (DHO) out of a traditional Horns set with the team’s two bigs to free him up to shoot in rhythm. This was an effective method in which to play to Bradley’s strength in the midrange.
Although not as effective as Bradley’s 1.02 points per possession on handoffs, Caldwell-Pope has experience in the Lakers’ system both shooting and making plays out of similar motion.
With the potential bolstering of the offense that could come with Caldwell-Pope in mind, it is also worth mentioning the negative impact it may have on the defense.
Not nearly as good as an overall defender as Bradley or Caruso in terms of checking shiftier guards, the team may struggle at the point of attack with Caldwell-Pope on the floor. A predicament the team must weigh going forward.
Verdict
I would assume Caldwell-Pope gets the nod with the starting five given his shooting and familiarity with the group. However the team’s best bet in filling Bradley’s void will likely have to be by committee with an uptick in minutes for Caruso, Caldwell-Pope and Green alike.
The burden of one less guard and option on the roster will ultimately lay on head coach Frank Vogel’s shoulders, who will again need to maneuver the pieces together to make it all fit.
Although Bradley probably was never going to be the determining factor if the Lakers ended up winning or not winning a championship this season, downplaying the loss of a key contributor and tone-setter at this stage is misguided.
Fortunately for the Lakers, they are a team who have shown a keen ability and enough resiliency to hurdle past on-and-off the court challenges all year.
And in order to reach the finishing line, they’ll need to do it once more.
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If you have any questions, concerns, feedback or want to send me recent work for consideration in future “Spotlight Corner” installments, feel free to email me: Alexm.regla@gmail.com. As always, thank you.